What the Numbers Are Really Saying About the Real Estate Market in 2024–2025

Just got back from the Keller Williams Family Reunion Conference, and I’m excited to share a six-part video series breaking down the numbers that drive the U.S. real estate economy. In this blog, I’ll give you a quick rundown of the key takeaways—because if you’re on the fence about buying, this is the info you need to hear.

1. Home Sales: A 30-Year Low… and What That Actually Means

In 2024, the U.S. recorded 4.1 million home sales—the lowest number we’ve seen since 1995. Yep, a 30-year low. And yet… home values continue to rise.

If you’re waiting for prices to drop, I’ve got some news for you: It’s not going to happen.

If you're experiencing a life change and need to move—do it. The worst is behind us. Projections show 4.2 million sales in 2025. As more buyers re-enter the market, rates come down, and inventory increases, home prices will climb faster. Right now, prices are only rising at about 4–5% annually. That’s as slow (and affordable) as it's going to get.

2. Home Prices: National vs. Michigan

In 2024, the average U.S. home price was $408,000. It's expected to hit $418,000 in 2025. But here in Mid-Michigan, our average is around $230,000—almost $200K less than the national average.

This is significant.

Michigan offers a ton of natural advantages—no hurricanes, no wildfires, no venomous snakes, and tons of freshwater. As climate issues continue to affect other states, Michigan is poised to become a relocation hotspot. That means our home values could start rising more rapidly.

Don’t wait for the rest of the country to catch on—buy now while it’s still affordable here.

3. Sales Volume vs. Number of Transactions

Here’s something wild: While 2024 had the fewest transactions in 30 years, the total market volume was the fifth highest of all time. Why? Because home values keep going up.

Takeaway: The longer you wait, the more you'll pay.

4. Still Not a Buyer’s Market—And It Won’t Be Anytime Soon

We haven’t seen a buyer’s market since 2011. That’s because we’re simply not building homes fast enough. Inventory is tight, and that’s keeping us firmly in a long-term seller’s market.

Statistically, we won’t return to a balanced market for at least another 10 years. So if you're holding out for better timing—you're just holding out to spend more for the same home.

5. Interest Rates: Let’s Get Real

Many people are still waiting for interest rates to drop to 2.5% or 3% again. Here's the truth: That was an emergency response during COVID. Those rates were artificially created to prevent a recession.

Right now, we’re in a normal interest rate environment. Rates may dip a little (possibly to around 5% over the next year), but we’re unlikely to ever see those COVID-era numbers again.

If you find a house you can afford at 6.5% today—buy it now, and refinance when rates fall. Don't let unrealistic expectations stop you from making a move that fits your life.

6. Affordability: The Real Story Behind the Headlines

There’s a lot of chatter about homes being “unaffordable,” but let’s break it down.

Currently, about 32% of Americans’ disposable income goes toward their mortgage payment (principal + interest). That’s actually on par with where we were in 2006—and way below the nearly 48% seen in the 1980s.

The long-term average? About 27%. So yes, things are a bit elevated—but they’re still within a historically normal range.

Bottom line: Owning a home in America is still affordable. Don’t let the headlines tell you otherwise.

Final Thoughts

The American Dream of homeownership is alive and well. If you're experiencing a life change that requires a move, now is the time to act.

Don’t wait for perfect conditions—they don’t exist. Instead, base your decisions on your personal situation and the long-term trends that clearly show real estate values continue to grow.

If you have any questions about the data or want to talk through your situation, I’d love to help. Let’s find the right home for you—before it costs you more.